Week 20 – ATP 1000 Rome Masters

The tour hits the eternal city.
Rome has a rather difficult position on the tennis calendar, with only one week between the start of the French Open and the Rome final. It also, comes on the back of the Madrid Masters, and the Rome Madrid double Therefore has seen plenty surprise finalists in the past years and unfortunately fair share of retirees and absences. Winners since 2005 have always been either Nadal or Djokovic, while Murray won his maiden Rome title last year.

Nadal has been unbeaten on Clay this season so far. His absolute ultimate goal will be to win La Decima at Roland Garros. He showed bits of weakness in Madrid, when he struggled against Fognini. He is a very short favourite at below evens and I happily take him on, as he comes from a tough Madrid tournament draw to find himself again in the tougher bottom half, which includes second favourite Djokovic and Madrid finalist Thiem.

Top half of the draw looks wide open with Andy Murray being out of sorts. However, he does has to defend his title in Rome, which means a likelier more motivated Murray than what we saw in Madrid. His first round opponent Fognini is however a difficult hurdle.

Dry and hot week expected in Rome which will mean slightly faster court play. My two favourites in the top draw are David Goffin and Fabio Fognini. One key doubt on Fognini is his pergnant wife who can give birth during the tournament which will likely see Fognini retire…. Therefore, my advice to stick to Fognini on a per match basis, starting with his first round against Murray.

Goffin, produced consecutive quarter finals in Rome. He is in the top half, and won’t face Nadal before the final. Goffin lost 3 times on clay this year, twice against Nadal and once to Kachanov. Goffin, seems to have taken the next step this year and gears his schedule to limit play to perform at top level at the Masters and Grand Slams. Key to remain in that top 10.

Outright Tip
David Goffin – €10 Each Way 34.00 @ Bet365.

goffin_davy

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Week 12 ATP Masters 1000 Miami Open

Miami open draw depleted by withdrawals of Murray and Djokovic. However, who can stop Federer currently. Odds going up for Federer to win a Golden Grand Slam in 2017, who would imagine anyone would back such a preposition in 2016.

Happy to take Federer on, as going back to back Indian Wells and Miami is a difficult task. Conditions are different, with heat and rain delays affecting the players and tournament directors.

On outsider, who enjoys the rather slow Miami hard court, is David Goffin. He managed two semi finals in IW and MIA in 2016 and after his early exit in IW will be poised to earn some ranking points in MIA.

Goffin, is in good shape, even though his fitness has been questioned. With injury doubt over many other contestants like Roanic and Kyrgios to name two, Goffin is each way value. In my opinion the two most likely winners are facing each other in the bottom half with Nadal and Nishikori. Assuming Federer will struggle to win twice in a row, Goffin is my favourite in the top half.

Outright tip:

Back David Goffing for €10 Each way at 34.00

DgoffMiami

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Week 8 – ATP 500 Rio, ATP 250 Marseille, ATP 250 Delray Beach

What a career week for Harrison. Without dropping his set he made the best of his kind draw and won his first ATP title. Perfect 19.00 Each way winner to account for nice return on investment on 2017 outright tips.

Similar schedule for week 8, again with out most big guns except Raonic but with interesting punting options.

ATP 500 Rio

Day one passed, and last year’s finalist Cuevas is already gone. We could be in for another outside winner afte Dolgopolov won last week in Buenas Aires beating the pre tournament favourite Nishikori.

Nishikori is one to take on again in Rio and after a poor performance from Fognini in Buenas Aires, I suggest backing him again. His draw is very kind and he has had good success in Rio in the past. Dolgo win, gives me the belief that it could be Fabio’s week now. Dolgo had not shown his best at any point in the past 12 months and fortune can change quickly. Fognini has it in him to shine this week while be rotten bad the previous week.

Back Fognini to win Each way €10 at 17.00 at Netbet

ATP 250 Marseille

Similar as in the previous tip on Rio, I take the same view on the Marseille tournament. Simon was my tip last week and I like to stick with him. He got through a tough first round in Kachanov. Beat him in 3 sets and now he path to the final is more than doable for the experienced Frenchman in front of a partisan crowd.

Back Simon to win Each way €10 at 17.00 at PaddyPower

ATP 250 Delray Beach

Great field with Raonic as the top seed. I see no value in opposing Raonic and the bottom half has Sock as favourite at a too low price. However, I could not say I fancy backing any of the other players in the bottom half. Therefore, rather abstain from tipping here.

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Week 7 – ATP 500 Rotterdam – ATP 250 Buenos Aires and Memphis

Full schedule this week on the ATP tour with 3 tournaments. Difference surfaces and most players scheduled their tournaments based on their best predicted outcomes. Albeit, Nishikori playing in Buenos Aires, must have had some commercial reasons, as the two time Memphis winner, has to adjust to Clay for limited time before traveling back North for the US early season hard court swing.

Rotterdam suffered a barrage of cancellations and we end up with a wide open field and perhaps another unlikely winner after Klizan in 2016.

Memphis sees all the top servers unite for the dry air and hard courts in Tennessee, with a field loaded with American 10-100 ranked players.

Buenos Aires’ schedule is comprised of the South Americans and Southern European players but with no Nadal, it looks to be an open tournament.

ATP 500 Rotterdam

I love the golden oldies for betting purpose. I sided with Lorenzo in last week’s Quito tournament and he fell at the last hurdle but another veteran did win the title with Estrella remaining undefeated in Quito.

With the depleted field, I side with Gilles Simon. He has had success here in the past and his draw is favourable. Simon shown continued fitness in 2017 and is full of confidence. As he is a player who won’t beat himself, it will take an excellent performance from an opponent to see a match through with Gilou. He is the only excellent value out there for the outright each way win.

Back Gilles Simon €10 Each way 26.00 at StanJames
ATP 250 Memphis

There is not much between the favourites here and I would not be confident picking any of the below 10.00 odds. The field >10, a clear contender is Ryan Harrison. He comes off a Dallas CH victory in very comfortable fashion. He will be hard to beat this tournament and contains all the value in the main draw.

Back Ryan Harrison €10 Each way 19.00 at Bet365
ATP 250 Buenos Aires

Nishikori is the main favourite. However, his fitness levels are always questionable and I doubt his appetite for a long run in this tournament, which will be his first Clay tournament of  2017. He is too short for my likening with a tough second round against Schwartzman and Delbonis next followed by possibly Ferrer.

Talking about Ferrer, he is one player I prefer to take on everytime. The player who I expect will be in for a surprise is Fabio Fognini. He has shown interest in this tournament in the past with a final in 2014. Mentally I expect him to be in a good place, with a baby on its way with his wife Flavia Pennetta. His draw is tough but Fabio in a good mood can beat anyone on Clay.

The bottom half is much weaker than the top half. The favs here are Ramos and Cuevas. However, both have not impressed lately and I like to side with an outsider for each way value. Gastao Elias is an obvious candidate on his preferred Clay with a good start to 2017.

Back Fabio Fognini €10 Each way 17.00 at Ladbrokes
Back Gastao Elias €10 Each way at 81.00 at Betfred

 

 

 

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Australian Open Outright Tips

Welcome to 2017. Skipped the first 2 weeks of the season because of the difficulty predicting results for the opening weeks with no ATP tennis the previous 6 weeks.

Back at it for the firs major tournament of the year Down Under. Below are my Outright Tips for both the Men’s draw as the Women’s draw.

Unsurprisingly the men draw seems hardly competitive from a finalists perspective with Nr. 1 seed Murray and Nr. 2 seed Djokovic heavy favourites. This brings attention first to the Quarter outright betting where we can dodge these super favs. On a side note, if I were to take any of these two players on, it would continue to be Djokovic.

Men 2nd Quarter Outright Tip

Wawrinka is favourite here and obviously loves this tournament. However, it is easy underestimate Stan due to his relatively poor performance outside the Grand Slams. The odds however do not underestimate Stan and I am happy to take him on. The likes of Kyrgios, Cilic, Tsonga and Sock all have a decent chance to go deep. From this list I like to side with the young, 24 year old Sock. His fitness levels have always been questionable but coming off an off season he should be fresh to give it a good go. In addition, he is coming off a morale boosting win in Auckland. His draw will see him likely against Tsonga in round 3, Cilic in round 4 and Kyrgios or Wawrinka in the quarter final.

€10 on Jack Sock for 17.00 available at PaddyPower

Men 3rd Quarter Outright Tip

Raonic is favourite in this part of the draw. However, outside of Wimbledon I do not back Raonic to win anything. His fitness is questionable and even though his part of the draw is not looking like a mine field, I still do not expect him to come through to the quarter final, with RBA one of the main hurdles.

I expect Monfils to carry on his great year in 2016 and extend his performance to a break through Grand Slam result. He has been seen practising well in the build up to the AO and I like his part of the draw where Nadal could be a 4th round opponent. Nadal has a great H2H against Monfils but on hard court the record is a not so abomidable 4-2 in favour of Nadal.

€10 on Gael Monfils for 13 available at Skybet

 

Women Tournament Outright Tips

Women tournament is wide open. I expect one or more first time Grand Slam winners in 2017. It can surely happen already at the AO. My favourite is Johanna Konta and she can still be backed at 21.00. However, after her tournament win in Sydney her price has plummeted from 41.00 to 21.00 and much of value has been lost.

An outside players who can push for a deep run is Siniakova who is available for 301.00 at Skybet.

Among the favourites I really like Pliskova and expect her to go deep again after her US Open exploits. She is in a favourable part of the draw and her price albeit short still good value.

€10 on Pliskova at 10.00 Each Way at PaddyPower
€10 on Konta at 21.00 Each Way at Betstars
€10 on Siniakova at 301.00 Each Way at Skybet

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Week 42 – ATP 250 Moscow Open Outright Tip

Back with valuable tennis tipping for Week 42 of the ATP season.

Three ATP 250 tournaments on schedule and the season is running towards the end. The Asian swing is behind us and most players will be back in familiar territory in Europe, were we continue the European indoor swing.

ATP 250 Moscow Open

Have to share this one with you as Bautista Agut one of my favourite players on tour because of his style and mental stability. He surprisingly made a Masters 1000 final in Week 40 in Shanghai, before coming back to his favourite tournament. Moscow is where he lost the final twice in ’14 and ’15 against Cilic. This year Cilic is not present and Bautista is awarded with a top seed and I like his chances. His top half of the draw is stuffed with the better players in the draw but nonetheless RBA will be hard to beat and should see this one out to the final again and take it one step further.

€10 on RBA Each way at Bet365 at 4.5

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Week 38 – ATP 250 Metz Open Outright

Back on the ATP grind after the US Open and Davis Cup break. The tail end of the season will make for plenty players who mentally checked out this season and will look forward to prep for a new season. Plus the travel in Asia and climate adjustments are recipe for surprising results.

Metz is played on reasonably fast indoor courts and the field is weak this year with the lack of the three top French player, laMonf, Tsonga and Gasman.

What is left is a top seed Thiem and second seed Goffin and new French tennis star Pouille. I do not trust any of these three this week but expect most from Goffin.

Value will be in other players and I am looking to Gilles Muller, who likes this type of court, to make another run at a maiden ATP title. He is in the top half of the draw and looks very capable of reaching the final with main hurdle Thiem who I do not expect to take this tournament very serious. Muller is looking forward to playing in Metz this week. “This is the first indoor tournament since February. You have to adapt. Some who played at the Davis Cup will be tired. You never know what can happen,” he said.

He won his first round against Zeballos hitting 19 aces and saving all 4 break points faced.
Muller will be hard to beat by anyone and I expect him to play until Sunday this week.

Back Gilles Muller for €10 each way at BetFred at 10.00.

muller.jpeg

 

 

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