Back with valuable tennis tipping for Week 42 of the ATP season.
Three ATP 250 tournaments on schedule and the season is running towards the end. The Asian swing is behind us and most players will be back in familiar territory in Europe, were we continue the European indoor swing.
ATP 250 Moscow Open
Have to share this one with you as Bautista Agut one of my favourite players on tour because of his style and mental stability. He surprisingly made a Masters 1000 final in Week 40 in Shanghai, before coming back to his favourite tournament. Moscow is where he lost the final twice in ’14 and ’15 against Cilic. This year Cilic is not present and Bautista is awarded with a top seed and I like his chances. His top half of the draw is stuffed with the better players in the draw but nonetheless RBA will be hard to beat and should see this one out to the final again and take it one step further.
€10 on RBA Each way at Bet365 at 4.5
Back on the ATP grind after the US Open and Davis Cup break. The tail end of the season will make for plenty players who mentally checked out this season and will look forward to prep for a new season. Plus the travel in Asia and climate adjustments are recipe for surprising results.
Metz is played on reasonably fast indoor courts and the field is weak this year with the lack of the three top French player, laMonf, Tsonga and Gasman.
What is left is a top seed Thiem and second seed Goffin and new French tennis star Pouille. I do not trust any of these three this week but expect most from Goffin.
Value will be in other players and I am looking to Gilles Muller, who likes this type of court, to make another run at a maiden ATP title. He is in the top half of the draw and looks very capable of reaching the final with main hurdle Thiem who I do not expect to take this tournament very serious. Muller is looking forward to playing in Metz this week. “This is the first indoor tournament since February. You have to adapt. Some who played at the Davis Cup will be tired. You never know what can happen,” he said.
He won his first round against Zeballos hitting 19 aces and saving all 4 break points faced.
Muller will be hard to beat by anyone and I expect him to play until Sunday this week.
Back Gilles Muller for €10 each way at BetFred at 10.00.
Last year’s US Open had record setting retirements. It is forecasted to be extremely hot again and with the usual suspects coming in injured and even the likes of Djokovic not fully fit, we are in for surprises. Reassure yourself that you bet at the bookmaker with your preferred retirement payout rule.
The list of potentially too injured to compete players is worrying long. Djokovic, Wawrinka, Nadal, Monfils, Sock, Anderson, Vesely, Kyrgios, Fritz etc..can all not be considered fully fit. This makes the market volatile and uncertainty is high. Murray is probably the fittest of them all at the moment and his 2.75 to win it all is probably close to the real price. However, after his scrappy performances at the Olympics, I am not convinced Murray is worth a punt. Djokovic can also be taken on, with the Serb visually still in discomfort with his wrist injury.
Previous winners Cilic and Delpo have therefore shortened up extremely in the past weeks and it is now too late to jump on them.
Where to look for value. Again I have to settle for the quarter betting with the poor quarter of the injured Wawrinka looking the most appetising.
Third Quarter Winner
Kyrgios his attitude and commitment is always questionable but less so in Grand Slams. I like his 9.00 available at William Hill as the word from himself and his camp is positive and he will be hard to beat if he can serve well and keep double faults at minimum.
The same quarter can see a different upset and i am happy to side with Winston Salem winner Carreno Busta at 101 at ladbrokes. This is a generous price in a quarter without any of the main favourites for the title.
Back Nick Kyrgios for 9.00 at William Hill
Back Pabl0 Carreno Busta at 101.00 at Ladbrokes
After an interesting tournament in Toronto, which saw the re-emergent of the all conquering Djokovic, our outright each way prediction Kei Nishikori did reach the final as to net a nice profit. This week has the single ATP tournament in Atlanta on schedule due to Olympic duty starting midweek in Rio.
ATP 250 Atlanta Open
With most top players playing in Rio, the field in ATL is weak. Our top seeds are three time consecutive winner Isner and Kyrgios in the bottom half.
The top half is undeniably the stronger side of the draw with Isner having to fend off Mannerino, Fritz and Anderson to reach the final. He is expected to do so, but I do not see enough value to back him.
The bottom half has all the value with Kyrgios coming off another off day against Shapovalov in Toronto. He did not seem to be able to energise himself for a Master event, let alone a 250 event in the heat of Atlanta. Once we look past Kyrgios there is no obvious second choice. It is my expectation Dolgopolov is in for a run, after losing thight matches earlier this US hard court swing. His road to a final, includes beating Verdasco and possibly Kyrgios but I like his chances to reach a final here and with current price available the each way has enough value to back theDog.
Back Alexandr Dolgopolov €10 each way at 17.00 available at StanJames
Last week was a busy ATP schedule with 4 events. Lorenzi won his well deserved first ever ATP tournament and Monfils won his first ever ATP 500 event, while Lopez and Fognini were favourite winners. Fognini was surprising as he had not gone deep in a tournament for nearly a couple of years. Weak opposition had something to do with it but perhaps his recent marriage will have him more focused on winning matches. Same can be expected from Monfils who has cut his dreads and played a very good tournament in which he comfortably reached the final. His final wobbles seemed to continue but with perseverance he came through after saving match point.
Master 1000 Rogers Cup
New found focus and reliability from enigmatic players Fognini and Monfils has not been upon Kyrgios yet. The young Australian lost his first round against an exciting prospect Denis Shapovalov. The bottom draw looks wide open without Murray and Federer. Cilic is a possible finalist but my eye is caught by Nishikori who said he had a good training week in Florida and is not hampered by his abdominal injury that saw him give a walkover at Wimbledon in the last 16. The bottom draw has Cilic and Wawrinka as main contenders and Nishikori has value each way at 13.00.
The top half of the draw is topped by Djokovic, who after his recent loss at Wimbledon can not be taken backed yet for such a short price. Other contenders in this half are Monfils and Goffin. Monfils could very well build on his success as his partnership with coach Tillstrom will start to provide results now after 9 months. Goffin has a stellar season and will have a chance against anyone including Djokovic. However, I find their quarter difficult to predict with home favourite Roanic included.
Kei Nishikori Each way €10 at 13.00 at BetVictor